Here's Jim Kasson's MODIS map for this morning (click on the map to expand it... looking a bit better!
Jim's comment:
"Really good news. No new hot spots overnight. Makes me wonder if the data from the morning satellite pass has been entered."
I'll leave this as a single-picture post so that the map will expand without a problem.
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This morning in Jamesburg...
The air's a bit less smoky now and the sun's coming through nicely.
The usual procession of firefighting assets rolled by to head up to Chews Ridge... by my count, about 35 vehicles rolled up the hill this morning. The bluejays are back... one of our indicators of "business as usual."
Highlights from the latest report updated at 7 am this morning are as follows:
Acres burned: 121,782
Acreage increase (last 12 hours): 1,396
Fireline to build: 17 miles
Percent contained: 61% (no change from yesterday)
- The slop over north of Chew's Ridge continues to be moderately active. Conditions today look favorable for burnout operations. Crews spent the night preparing the containment line. Burnout is planned for this area to protect firefighter and resident safety.
Evacuations:
- EFFECTIVE TUESDAY, JULY 15, 2008 at 10AM: The voluntary evacuation from the intersection of Martin Road south along both sides of Carmel Valley Road to Piney Creek Road will be upgraded to a MANDATORY evacuation. This MANDATORY evacuation includes all of Martin Road, but does not include Piney Creek Road.
- The area of Lower Cachagua is under MANDATORY evacuation, including all of Tassajara Road, and Cachagua Road from the intersection of Tassajara Road to Trampa Canyon Road. It also includes all roads off of Cachagua Road between Trampa Canyon Road, Tassajara Road, and the forest boundary.
- Additionally, the area of Upper Cachagua is under a VOLUNTARY evacuation. This includes Cachagua Road from Trampa Canyon Road west to Carmel Valley Road. This area includes Sky Ranch Road, Via Cielo Road, Nason Road, and Asoleado Road. Trampa Canyon Road is included in this VOLUNTARY evacuation.
- Carmel Valley Road is under a VOLUNTARY evacuation from the intersection of Carmel Valley Road and Arroyo Seco Road to Piney Creek Road.
Road Closures:
- Tassajara Road is under a hard closure at the intersection of Tassajara Road and Carmel Valley Road.
- Cachagua Road is under a hard closure at the intersection of Cachagua Road and Trampa Canyon Road.
- Carmel Valley Road is closed to the public, except to emergency traffic and residents from the junction of Arroyo Seco Road to Piney Creek Road.
More later! I'm about to be interviewed on the phone by KUSP 88.9 FM on the morning show called "Talk of the Bay" after 10:30 am.
I'll do my best to represent Jamesburg/Cachagua, our great local Volunteer Firefighters and our neighbors and community! Wish me luck!!!
________________________________If one were to describe where the nexus of the fire activity at the moment, one might say:
- "The active firefront, of concern, and in relation, to Jamesburg is in Anastasia Canyon, southeast flank, below Bear Trap and Cahoon Spring, backing down the slope toward Carmel Valley Road, Poison Oak Hill and the Hastings Preserve."
Anyone have field reports to verify (or debunk) such a statement? Any pictures of the current firefront or the backfiring activity (if begun)?
Thanks!
________________________________
Cachagua Store notes from the field...
The Cachagua Store has a pretty good rundown this morning about their "just you and me puttin' on a community service" approach to helping people out and catching us up on the fire.
Calling themselves "The Associated Looters and Scumbags" - they were accused of looting! - these good folks are planning more of their scandalous, outlaw activity in support of critters of every stripe around the Jamesburg/Cachagua area.
Check it out! Good on ya' Mikey!
Also of note in Cachagua Store's write up is a little tip 'o the hat to our local dozer crews:
"Rod McMahan of the (Cachagua Fire) Volunteers...checked out the dozer line. Like all of us, he was afraid that it was a clear cut......sad but necessary. On the contrary..... Terry Bishop, Callie, Deano and the others have left islands, protected the gorgeous madrones and the big heritage oaks in the White Oaks area. Hats off, once again. Skill, courage, hard work, humor and sensitivity..."
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4 comments:
I am a fire map reading neophyte, so what I have to offer must be taken with a grain of salt...but I am fairly convinced that the map you have posted does not show updated morning data.
If you go to GeoMAC and select the MODIS overlay (lines, not dots on that website) you will see clear light-moderate fire activity/growth "in the past 12 hours" about where you would expect it on the northeastern side.
Reminder: Grain of salt.
http://geomac.usgs.gov/
(select "wildfire mapping" at left)
Talked to my cousin, an attorney and nationally recognized expert on digital manipulation and he said its very easy to edit/manipulate the data, so like Tony says take the MODIS maps with a grain of salt. Peace.
The GeoMAC data indicates growth in the last 12 hours, as Tony said. The data I sent to Kelly does not. Therefore, it is a good idea to examine the provenance of the data.
The data I sent Kelly came from the US Forest Service. See http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/
It was downloaded as a Google Earth data set from http://activefiremaps.fs.fed.us/kml/conus.kmz
I added the fire lines, peak and camp names from other data sets.
It looks like both GeoMAC and the Forest Service are looking at the same NASA data from the two polar-orbiting satellites Terra and Aqua. In each case, there must be some manipulation done before the data is presented to the web. I don't understand that manipulation for either provider.
For those people who have been using the FOrest Service Google Earth dat sets since the beginning of the fire, there is value in continuing to use them. We know that they don't catch every part of the fire, but they seem to be pretty good in tracking the general movement. I would imagine that people who have been using the GeoMAC data feel comfortable continuing to use it.
As to the possibility of intentional manipulation, it is certainly easy to do, especially at the Google Earth level. I'm not sure why anyone would do that.
Jim
As of noon, the Forest Service data shows no new hot spots.
Jim
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