Thursday, July 17, 2008

This morning's MODIS map and Incident Info..



July 17, 2008 about 7:15 am

Here's this morning's MODIS from Jim, along with his comments... thanks, again, Jim!

Jim was concerned about some of the new, red dot data points on  the MODIS map, but subsequent reports from people on the ground near the incident call into question the position of the hotspots outside the containment lines.

Be sure to read the updates, below, before you run for the hills... (hmmm... why doesn't that metaphor work, here?).

Jim notes:
  1. Fire north of (outside) the RR (fallback) fireline, Headed for Lambert Flat Road and Tassajara Road
  2. Fire on the wrong side of Carmel Valley Road, 1.25 miles NW of Cahoon Summit
  3. Fire on the wrong side of Carmel Valley Road, 1.5 mile SE of Cahoon Summit
  4. Quite a bit of burning within the fallback firelines
  5. More fire headed towards Piney Creek, but inside the firelines.
  6. Fire very close to the firelines near the Carmel River – backfires?
  7. The Divide Camp fire keeps going and going…
___________________________________________
UPDATE from scanner radio traffic this morning:
All scanner traffic sounds great. Everything went as planned. Most of the backfire has burned down the slope into the valley bottom. They are going to work the opposing side today. The assumption is that the jump we saw in the pictures was squelched (no pun intended) and is a non-issue now. Nothing has been mentioned about it.
And, there's nothing in this morning's Incident Report about the fire jumping the line.

Other contributors comment:
Not sure I would believe the IR points on Jim's map. We'd be hearing a lot about any fires on the "wrong" side of CVR. 

Nothing on the radio at all and caravans have been passing by all day and night along the road where those supposed jumps have occurred. 

All of the crews coming up Anastasia Canyon have to pass by those two areas on their way from Eaton's.
The info from the helibase info trailer is that there are no fires outside of the new dozer lines. They seemed pretty confident. So,  I don't know if there is a 1/4 mile error in modis data, or if they put them out already or what.
So, DON'T PANIC as the Hitchhiker's Guide to the Galaxy might posit...
____________________________________
Official Incident Update as of 9:40 am...
  • The Basin Fire remained very active througout the last operational period, making several sustained runs when in proper alignment especially within Div GG of the East Zone. Fire behavior within the Backfire area of Div RR was observed to be a good backing fire into the Anastasia Canyon.
  • The Evacuation Order will remain in effect for the Carmel Valley Road to Piney Creek Road and for the Lower Cachagua area (that's Jamesburg, in IC-speak). The Backfiring operation continued throughout the previous operational period with good progress in Div RR. The firing operation progressed from DP-306 East to the Div RR/NN break and then South towards DP-211. Crews continue to improve and fire out the containment line in Div GG. Crews will continue to hold and mop up on all Divisions.
  • Last night's burnout operations went well on Chew's Ridge. Burnout operations are expected to extend southeast along the containment line through today as conditions permit.
  • The King City Incident Command Post and Carmel Valley Spike Camp have been combined and relocated to Carmel Valley Road near Tassajara Road.
  • Tassajara Road is under a hard closure at the intersection of Tassajara Road and Carmel Valley Road.
  • Cachagua Road is under a hard closure at the intersection of Cachagua Road and Trampa Canyon Road.
  • Carmel Valley Road is closed to the public, except to emergency traffic and residents from the junction of Arroyo Seco Road to Piney Creek Road.
  • Martin Road is closed to all traffic except emergency vehicles.
  • If anyone needs the assistance of the American Red Cross, they may call (831) 809-5861 in Greenfield or (831) 624-6921 or (925) 407-5153 in Carmel Valley.

5 comments:

Anonymous said...

I watched the Hastings cam until late last night...the fire definately seemed to be NOT in any particular 'control'! It was huge, and lots of heli drop activity happened until dark. Even some retardant drops, which I am not sure usually has to be used on 'controlled' burns...??? Maybe, I just don't know. There were flames and later glow in the dark night SEEMINGLY just SW of Hastings.

This am the cam shows smoke 'out there'...sorry, I don't know the ridges that well from that view to name them...and my Ventana Rec map isn't working!! :(

On MODIS, it also looks like there is burning towards the dam, unless that too is a burn-out. Last night on the cam, there was HUGE column of black smoke that started at dusk, in that direction from the cam, I think.

It burns on and on.... I'm flabbergasted by the immensity of this fire! And concerned for what Winter will bring...

Anonymous said...

The MODIS hotspots east of CVR could be errors. They could be to the west in actuality, and still be within the MODIS error tolerance, although it's been better than that for the most part during this fire.

I'd go with what the people on the ground are seeing.

Jim

Anonymous said...

For me, this is the one of the worst "Fog of War" days since the fires began.

I do not have a coherent, complete picture of what went on last night that I trust.

I am aware that there is a lot of news which is not being reported and/or given enough weight this morning. That is crazy making for me and makes me very suspicious, but I don't know if it adds up to anything to be concerned about (yet).

My best guess at 9:30am is that things are not completely "going according to plan" and there have have been some significant problems.

If anyone has any additional information or insights, please post them!

Kelly Erin O'Brien said...

Yes, no need to panic... we're updating the information regularly as it comes in.

So far, things - rather than looking bad - are looking VERY GOOD. This conclusion is drawn from information gleaned from radio scanner chat.

Let's hang tight and keep our fingers crossed... they're planned MORE BURNING today, so it could look nasty.

We shouldn't leap to conclusions and we need not do so, thanks to our excellent group of contrinutors to the 'blog, reporting what they see on a regular basis, as calmly and accurately as possible.

best,

Kelly

kathy said...

Kelly - thank you so, SO much for being a voice of reason. You're doing a wonderful job of keeping everyone updated. You're da gal!